The leaked US-Russia peace draft has sparked widespread discussion, revealing plans that suggest transferring control of parts of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, still held by Ukraine, to Vladimir Putin's Russia. The plan also proposes reducing Ukraine's military forces to 600,000 personnel. But what more do we know about this draft, and who might benefit most?
Key Aspects of the Plan
The draft includes 28 key provisions, some of which might seem acceptable to Ukraine on the surface, while others lack clarity. It confirms Ukraine's sovereignty and suggests a 'total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe', complete with security assurances for Kyiv and a call for snap elections within 100 days. In the event of a Russian invasion, a 'robust coordinated military response' and the reinstating of sanctions and nullification of the deal are proposed. Due to Ukraine's current martial law, elections seem unfeasible unless a peace agreement is reached. However, security guarantees lack specifics, raising concerns over their viability compared to NATO's Article Five, which Ukraine may require for assurance.
Territorial Handover and Military Reduction
Among the controversial suggestions is Ukraine relinquishing control over its own unoccupied territories and reducing its military. Specifically, 'Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast they control, establishing a neutral demilitarized buffer zone internationally recognized as Russian territory, yet Russian forces will not enter this zone.' This effectively cedes areas like Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka—home to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians—to Russian authority. Moreover, limiting Ukraine's military to 600,000 personnel would undermine its sovereignty and be potentially unacceptable to both Kyiv and Moscow. Currently, Ukraine's forces have significantly grown, stimulated by ongoing threats from Russia. Ukraine's representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn stood firm at the UN Security Council, asserting, 'There will never be any recognition formal or otherwise of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by Russia as Russian. Ukraine will not accept any limits on its self-defense rights or military capacity.' The draft also recognizes 'Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto Russian territories, including by the United States,' though not requiring official recognition, potentially allowing Kyiv to agree without violating its constitution which declares its borders as 'indivisible and inviolable.' In southern regions like Kherson and Zaporizhzia, front lines would remain unchanged, while Russia would withdraw from other occupied Ukrainian areas.
Ukraine's Prospective Path—EU Over Nato
The draft outlines strategic commitments concerning Ukraine's future, stating, 'Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO and NATO agrees.' This provision significantly alters Ukraine's potential foreign alignments, promoting a future more aligned with the European Union rather than NATO.