Kevin Warsh, a former governor of the US Federal Reserve, became a focal point of discussion during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, on April 25, 2025.
Following President Donald Trump's comments that Kevin Warsh has emerged as a leading candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, prediction markets experienced significant volatility on Friday. According to Trump, Warsh is currently at the forefront of his list of potential candidates, leading to a notable rise in Warsh's odds on the prediction platform Kalshi, which climbed to 40% from around 15%.
Trump's interview with the Wall Street Journal revealed Warsh as a prominent contender, prompting a decline in the implied probability of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett securing the position. Hassett's odds briefly dropped below 60% from a previous 80% following Trump's remarks.
When asked explicitly whether Warsh was his top choice, Trump affirmed, "Yes, I think he is," according to the newspaper. These comments swiftly impacted the prediction markets.
Despite Warsh's rise, Trump also suggested that Kevin Hassett remains a strong candidate, stating, "I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They're both — I think the two Kevins are great." Interestingly, Hassett continues to lead on Kalshi, maintaining a competitive position.
While Hassett had been the overwhelming favorite for months, his odds saw a decline on Friday afternoon as the market adjusted to Trump's latest statements.