During the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring meetings, former governor of the US Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, found himself at the center of speculation over the next Federal Reserve Chair. This came after President Donald Trump indicated Warsh as a prominent contender.
On Friday, April 25, 2025, prediction markets responded rapidly following Trump's remarks in the Wall Street Journal, where he acknowledged Warsh as his leading choice. This led to Warsh's odds on Kalshi soaring from approximately 15% to a peak of 40%.
In contrast, the probability of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett becoming the Fed chair briefly dipped below 60%, down from an earlier 80%, illustrating the market's reaction to Trump's statements.
When directly asked if Warsh was his top choice, Trump affirmed, "Yes, I think he is," according to the publication. However, he also suggested that Hassett was still a considerable contender, leading Kalshi's odds despite the shift.
"I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They're both — I think the two Kevins are great," Trump commented, keeping both candidates in the competitive spotlight.
Hassett, who had been the favorite for months, saw a decrease in his odds by Friday afternoon as the markets adjusted to Trump's latest indications.