During the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, on Friday, April 25, 2025, Kevin Warsh, a former governor of the US Federal Reserve, found himself in the spotlight.
Prediction markets responded dramatically on Friday after President Donald Trump announced that Kevin Warsh had emerged as the frontrunner to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh's probability on the prediction platform Kalshi rose to as high as 40%, a significant leap from approximately 15%, following Trump's statements to the Wall Street Journal acknowledging Warsh as a primary contender.
Until recently, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was the favorite for the role, but his implied probability briefly dipped below 60% from its former 80% level, according to market analysis, following the same announcement.
When questioned directly about Warsh being his preferred choice, Trump replied affirmatively, saying, 'Yes, I think he is,' as reported by the paper. The President's comments caused an immediate impact across prediction markets.
Despite his remarks, Trump still indicated that Hassett remains a significant contender in the race, with Hassett's odds still leading on Kalshi. 'I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They're both — I think the two Kevins are great,' Trump stated.
Hassett had consistently been the market favorite over the previous months. However, by Friday afternoon, investor sentiment began adjusting to Trump's latest comments, influencing Hassett's odds in the predictive markets.